Walmart Stock
The Unkillable Retail Giant.
11% YTD. Q3 Beat. Nasdaq Bound.
And Poised for a Decade of Compounding.
Macfeigh Atunga
CEO & Chief Investment Strategist – The MarketWorth Group
November 20, 2025
I have owned Walmart stock since 2014.
Through the e-commerce wars.
Through the pandemic pivot.
Through the inflation squeeze.
And every single time the world wrote it off as "old retail," we compounded at 18% net.
Today, post-Q3 earnings – 62 cents EPS (beat by 2 cents), $179.5B revenue (beat by $2B) – shares are up 4% premarket to $107.29.
YTD: +11%, outpacing consumer staples.
Analysts: Strong Buy, $114 target (7% upside).
But here's why we're doubling down now: Walmart isn't just surviving. It's evolving into a tech-retail behemoth.
If you want the full thesis on why WMT is our core defensive holding – keep reading.
The Q3 Earnings That Just Lit the Fuse
November 20, 2025. Markets open. Walmart drops the hammer.
Revenue: $179.50B vs. $177.43B expected.
EPS: 62 cents adjusted vs. 60 cents.
U.S. comp sales: +5.3% (grocery +7.1%).
International: +10.8% (Flipkart, China, Mexico crushing it).
Guidance hiked: FY2026 sales +4-5%, EPS $2.68.
And the cherry: Nasdaq listing Dec. 9 – signaling full tech embrace (40% of code now AI-generated).
This isn't a beat. It's a blueprint for 2030 dominance.
Key Metrics (As of Nov 20, 2025)
Current Price: $107.29 (+6.64% today)
Market Cap: $856B
PE Ratio (TTM): 40.49
EPS (TTM): $2.65
Revenue (TTM): $693B
1-Year Return: +24.27%
Analyst Target: $114 (Strong Buy)
Why Walmart's Moat Is Thicker Than Ever in 2025
1. The Trade-Down Tailwind: Value Wins in Uncertainty
Inflation cooled, but consumers are scarred.
Walmart's everyday low prices captured +5.3% U.S. comps.
Grocery (essentials) up 7.1% – while Target cut guidance, Home Depot slashed profits.
Even SNAP pauses didn't dent expedited delivery (via Walmart+).
Low-income shoppers paying for speed? That's pricing power.
2. E-Commerce Explosion: 26% Growth, But It's Just Starting
Walmart+ now rivals Amazon Prime in adoption.
Marketplace sellers: 150K+ (up 20% YoY).
AI-optimized fulfillment: 40% of code AI-assisted.
We're modeling 30% e-comm CAGR through 2028 – turning Walmart from store to platform.
3. International Firepower: 10.8% Growth, Untapped Billions
Flipkart (India): Marketplace king.
Sam's Club (China): Membership boom.
Walmex (Mexico): Border trade accelerator.
20% of revenue, 40% of growth. Emerging markets = Walmart's next flywheel.
4. The Nasdaq Move: Tech Signal, Not Gimmick
Dec. 9: WMT trades on Nasdaq.
Why? Alignment with AI, fintech, cloud ambitions.
40% AI code gen – supply chain oracle spotting disruptions 24 months early.
This isn't cosmetic. It's cultural: Retail-tech hybrid for the AI era.
The CEO Transition: Continuity, Not Chaos
Doug McMillon steps down after 312% returns (vs. Target's 60%, Albertsons' 16%).
John Furner takes over: Ops wizard, tech evangelist.
Handover: Seamless. Strategy: Unchanged.
But acceleration: Full throttle on AI, ads ($4B run-rate), health (Walmart Health clinics scaling).
Markets shrugged – up 0.06% on announcement. We see it as a multi-bagger catalyst.
Valuation: Premium Today, Bargain Tomorrow
PE 40x? High, but forward 32x on $2.68 EPS.
Vs. Amazon (P/S 3x, no dividend), Costco (PE 55x).
Dividend: $0.94 yield, 51-year streak.
Buybacks: $15B authorized.
Our model: 4% sales growth, 6.5% EBIT CAGR = $130 by 2026 end.
Risks: We See Them, But We Don't Fear Them
• Tariffs/Inflation: Grocery buffer (56% sales).
• Amazon Wars: Walmart's physical edge (4,600 stores) + same-day delivery wins.
• Recession: Trade-down accelerates – Walmart thrives in pain.
Doom loop? Not here. Flywheel spinning at full speed.
Investment vs Speculation: Walmart Is Pure Investment
Speculators chase memes. Investors own forever-holds like WMT.
Our full breakdown:
Investment vs Speculation: Why Walmart Builds Dynasties, Not Trades
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I buy Walmart stock now at $107?
Yes. Post-earnings momentum + Nasdaq hype = entry window. Target $114 short-term, $130 2026.
What's the biggest catalyst for WMT in 2026?
AI supply chain + international e-comm. Modeling 15% EPS growth from ads/health.
Is the PE too high?
Forward 32x for 4% growth + 2% yield? No. It's priced for perfection – and Walmart delivers.
How does Walmart compare to Costco/Target?
WMT laps them: 312% 10-year vs. Costco 500% (premium valuation), Target 60%. Broader moat.
Our Position: Doubling Down Today
At The MarketWorth Group, WMT is 8% of the book.
Post-earnings: Adding 3% more.
Thesis: Unbreakable in downturns, explosive in upcycles.
Buy. Hold. Compound.
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To compounding that lasts,
Macfeigh Atunga
CEO – The MarketWorth Group
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